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Marketing Pulse May 16

Saturday rate spike rewrites Monday's marketing plan

The 30Y jumped 13 bps overnight to a 90-day high, FHA/VA spiked 18 bps — the deadline-anchored Refi '86 campaign matters more than ever, but yesterday's "buyers stopped waiting" post needs to be shelved until rates settle.

Saturday, May 16, 2026 30Y 6.54%15Y 5.85%5/1 ARM 6.32%

The marketing plan from yesterday — stack three demand prints into a Monday-morning "buyers stopped waiting" post — needs to be rewritten. The conventional 30Y jumped 13 bps to 6.49% overnight (a fresh 90-day high), FHA and VA each spiked 18 bps, and the 10Y is at its highest yield in 12 months. Posting "buyers are deciding now" Monday morning while everyone in your CRM is looking at fresh rate alerts on their phones reads as oblivious. The Daily Pulse from this morning has the full mechanics; the marketing implication is direct — kill the planned Monday social campaign, rebuild it around the new reality, and prioritize direct outreach over broadcast this weekend.

6.49% is the new 90-day high (range 5.98–6.49, avg 6.35). The 2023-vintage 7%+ refi math is now about $200/mo back on a $400K loan at 7.25% — still strong, but the conversation framing has to pivot from "rates are dropping, act fast" to "rates moved higher overnight, here's why your refi still works in this environment." For broker-channel LOs, UWM's Refi '86 incentive (86 bps through June 30) is now structurally MORE valuable, not less — when conventional rates spike, an 86-bps pricing improvement does more relative work on the borrower's break-even math. For purchase-side, the social-proof "demand stack" tells the same story but you need to lead with rate-acknowledgment before the data; otherwise the post reads tone-deaf to a borrower who just saw a "rates hit one-year high" headline.

The high-priority marketing work this weekend is direct, not broadcast. Pull every contact who got a quote in the last 14 days and send a Saturday-evening or Sunday-morning SMS: "Quick heads-up — mortgage rates moved overnight. Your number from [day] is no longer accurate. I'll have a fresh quote ready for you Monday morning before market open. No action needed this weekend, just don't want you blindsided by a Zillow alert. Reply if your timeline changed." That's CRM work, not social media. The reason: borrowers WILL see a "rates jumped" headline somewhere this weekend — Zillow, CNBC, WSJ app, a friend's text. The LO who proactively contextualizes it owns the relationship for the next 90 days. The LO who calls Monday after the borrower discovers it themselves looks reactive, and trust quietly compounds the other way.

Do this today

send the Saturday or Sunday contextualizer SMS to every active-pipeline contact with a quote from this week. 30-minute task, dramatic relationship-equity payoff. If you do only one marketing-adjacent thing this weekend, this is it — save the Monday "demand stack" post for next week when rates settle and the framing isn't fighting the day's headlines.

Borrower segments to act on today

Saturday call list: active pipeline quoted in last 14 days

These borrowers were quoted at rates that are now 13–18 bps stale (worse). A proactive Saturday/Sunday SMS contextualizing the move keeps you ahead of the Zillow alert and Monday morning's reactive scramble.

active loans · ≤1mo since close
Refi candidates: closed 18+ months ago at 7.0%+

Peak-rate 2023 vintage. Conventional refi at today's 6.49% still saves about $200/mo on a $400K loan at 7.25%; broker-channel LOs can stack UWM's 86-bps Refi '86 incentive (expires June 30) on top, which matters more in a rising-rate environment, not less.

closed loans · ≥18mo since close · rate ≥7.00%

Today’s content angles

Text message

Weekend contextualizer SMS to active pipeline

Hey {client}, quick heads-up — mortgage rates moved up overnight, and the number we ran for you earlier this week is no longer accurate. Today's payment on a $400K loan runs about $30/mo higher than where we were Wednesday. Nothing you need to do this weekend; I just want to make sure a Zillow alert or news headline doesn't blindside you. I'll have a refreshed quote ready for you Monday morning before market open. If your timeline has changed or you want to talk through anything, reply anytime. Have a good weekend.

Social post

Monday morning 'what changed' explainer (replaces yesterday's social post)

Quick update for anyone tracking the housing market — mortgage rates ticked up over the weekend after a global trade summit didn't produce the de-escalation news markets were hoping for. Today's payment on a $400K loan runs about $30/mo higher than last Wednesday. Two things stayed the same: home values are rising in 9 out of 10 US markets, and pending sales are at a 3-year high. The 'wait for rates to drop' play just got harder, but the 'wait for buyers to leave' play already broke last week. If you're sizing up a move and want today's real number on your file, message me PAYMENT and I'll have it back to you within the hour.

Tactics worth stealing

Acknowledge the headline before you make the pitch

When a market-moving headline lands between your last touch and your next one, ALWAYS open the next message with acknowledgment of the move before you go to your pitch — even a single sentence. Borrowers can tell when an LO is sending the same content as if nothing happened, and the trust cost of being seen as out-of-touch is far larger than the time cost of one custom paragraph. Templated outreach is fine; templated outreach that ignores yesterday's headlines is not.

Marketing AI Institute; Mortgage Marketing Animals podcast; first-principles relationship-CRM rule