September CPI came in hot at 8:30 this morning. BLS says headline prices rose 0.6% on the month and 3.7% from a year ago, and core rose 0.3% on the month, with Mortgage News Daily putting the unrounded core figure at 0.335% against a 0.2% forecast. Mortgage pricing absorbed it without giving back Tuesday's gain: Bankrate's 30-year reads 7.47%, unchanged from Tuesday and 10 bps below Monday's 7.57%, and the 15-year holds 6.80%. The 10-year Treasury sits at 5.24%, up 3 bps from Tuesday's 5.21% close on Treasury's curve. MND's read is that the print "puts a floor under" the recent rally after Fed speeches had pulled back hike expectations, and Redfin now puts the odds of an October hike at "50/50," while expecting rates to "give back some of last week's improvements."
On deck: jobless claims and Freddie Mac's weekly PMMS land tomorrow, October 15, and housing starts and permits are due in the October 16 to 18 window. The bigger test is core PCE, due in the October 23 to 30 window. Redfin's read is that a 0.4% monthly core PCE would make it "difficult not to hike." The FOMC meets October 27 to 28, a meeting with no dot plot; the statement lands at 2:00 pm Eastern on the 28th and the press conference at 2:30. The next CPI is November 10.
At 7.47%, Bankrate's 30-year sits in the upper half of its 30-day range of 6.90% to 7.57% (30-day average 7.31%) and near the top of its 90-day range of 6.61% to 7.57% (average 6.95%, 88 daily reads). It is 57 bps above where it stood a month ago. Freddie Mac's PMMS read 7.40% on October 8, up 0.12 points over the prior week and 0.64 points over 30 days. Government loans are holding steadier than conventional this week: Bankrate's FHA 30-year reads 7.22%, 2 bps under its October 9 to 11 read of 7.24%, and VA reads 7.21%, 7 bps under its 7.28%, against the conventional 30-year's 10 bp move.
The segment to call today is unlocked buyers under contract with closings after October 28. They are floating into two binary events, core PCE and the Fed decision, with the 30-year near the top of its 90-day range and a quarter point on a $400K loan worth about $68 a month. For anyone who cannot absorb that, locking at today's level removes the risk; anyone who wants to float should agree a written trigger with you first. Do this today: pull every unlocked file closing after October 28 and get a lock-or-float decision from each borrower before core PCE lands.