Kevin Warsh was confirmed as Fed chair, taking the seat as Powell's term ends Friday. The market had fully priced this — Goldman and BofA already pushed first-cut forecasts to mid-2027 — so the confirmation itself didn't move bonds, but it locks in the "no cuts in 2026" regime under a chair widely read as more hawkish than Powell. The 10Y kept climbing regardless: 4.46% today, up from 4.42 Tuesday and 4.38 Friday — a steady three-day grind higher as the post-CPI repricing extends. Freddie's weekly PMMS printed 6.36% (down 1 bp), but that survey lags; the daily quotes and the 10Y trajectory both say the operating rate is drifting up, not down.
The aggressive broker-channel move the consolidation chatter has been forecasting landed today: UWM launched "Refi '86," an 86-bps refi pricing incentive running through June 30, alongside upgrades to its Mia AI assistant. For broker-channel LOs this is real ammunition — 86 bps of pricing improvement on a refi is the difference between a marginal break-even and a clear win for a 2023-vintage borrower. It also confirms this week's read: with the Two Harbors acquisition stalled, UWM is redirecting capital into organic-growth pricing. Retail-channel LOs should expect their broker competitors to be aggressively quoting refis through June and plan their counter accordingly.
The Two Harbors saga escalated again. A day after TWO's board unanimously rejected UWM's $12.50 bid as "predatory," CrossCountry Mortgage sweetened its competing offer — adding a pro-rata dividend that lifts total cash value to as much as $12.68/share ahead of the May 19 shareholder vote. Two reads on the macro backdrop: MND's desk still frames the CPI print as "no problem for bonds," while MPA and Scotsman Guide are running "inflation highest since 2023, rate relief may be off the table for 2026 entirely." The bond tape is siding with the bears — three straight days of the 10Y grinding higher, and jobless claims ticking up to 211k from 199k wasn't enough to interrupt it.
For rate sheets: Freddie's 6.36% weekly undersells the moment — the 10Y at 4.46 means daily quotes are running 6.45–6.50% and Thursday's rate sheets price worse than Wednesday's. The UWM Refi '86 incentive resets the competitive floor for broker-channel refis through June 30; if you're retail, your refi pricing conversations just got harder, and the move is to lead with service and speed rather than try to match an 86-bps gift you don't have. For purchase, MBA's +4% purchase-application strength from yesterday's survey still holds as the social-proof talking point — demand is enduring at this rate level even as the rate drifts up.
On the regulatory side, the CFPB is reportedly recalling staff to the office more than a year after the Trump administration shuttered its HQ and moved to eliminate the workforce — a signal the agency is being rebuilt rather than dismantled, which matters for the compliance-posture assumptions LOs and compliance teams have been operating under. On the listing layer: Bright MLS confirmed Compass will provide its nationwide listings data (companion to the Cotality BLX news from Monday), and HousingWire's market-share analysis pegs the Compass/Anywhere combined ecosystem at roughly 29% of sides and 39% of volume post-deal — platform consolidation is now real and measurable.
if you're broker-channel, pull every 2023-vintage closed file at 7%+ and model the refi with UWM's Refi '86 incentive applied before you call — the 86 bps may push borrowers who were marginal last week into clear-win territory, and the conversation lands better when you open with the actual number. If you're retail, do the same pull but lead the call with "I want to make sure you're seeing every option" and a speed-and-service angle — don't pretend the pricing gap isn't there.