Bankrate's daily 30Y ticked to 6.47% — up 2 bps from Wednesday and tying the 90-day high — but the more interesting move today was in the spread products. VA 30Y rolled back 3 bps to 6.01, FHA 30Y rolled back 3 bps to 5.99 (back under 6% after this week's spike), and jumbo rolled back 3 bps to 6.65. VIX dropped to 17.26 from 17.87 — risk appetite returned, and the gov-loan investor base demanded slightly less spread compensation than 72 hours ago. The 10Y held at 4.46% — bonds aren't moving, but the credit/spread layer is loosening. Borrowers in government programs are seeing modestly better quotes today than they were Tuesday or Wednesday.
The calendar is light into next week. Technical levels to watch on the 10Y: 4.50% as resistance, 4.40% as support — a clean break either direction sets the tone for the back half of May. With Warsh confirmed and no near-term cuts on the horizon, the most-likely path is sideways at this level until a soft data print arrives. Next week brings housing starts Tuesday and existing-home sales Wednesday; a soft existing-sales number into a market already pricing demand resilience could spark a small bond rally — but Redfin's pending-sales data (+9.6% YoY, highest since September 2022, posted yesterday) makes the print more likely to confirm than disappoint, which keeps the rally setup probabilistic rather than likely.
6.47% ties the 90-day high. We're 13 bps above the 90-day average of 6.34 and 7 bps above the 30-day average of 6.40. The market has now spent eight of the last nine sessions on the 6.45–6.47 shelf — a ceiling, not a transit point. For borrowers quoted at the February floor (5.98%), today is 49 bps higher. For the 2023-vintage 7%+ refi cohort, conventional math is unchanged at about $210/mo on a $400K loan, but UWM's Refi '86 incentive (86 bps through June 30) materially reshapes the broker-channel break-even. Gov-loan refis specifically just got 3 bps better on the day — a small but real wedge for FHA streamline and VA IRRRL conversations.
Two segments today. FHA and VA active pipeline — the 3-bp roll-back is small but real, and the right call is the "small good news" outreach: proactive note that pricing moved slightly in their favor, not a request for a decision. Builds trust without burning urgency. 2023-vintage 7%+ refi cohort, broker-channel — UWM's Refi '86 remains the deadline-anchored campaign through June 30. Do this today: pull every FHA and VA file with a quote in the last 7 days and send a single-line text — "quick heads-up, gov-loan pricing moved a hair in your favor today; no action needed, just wanted you to know." Goodwill builds when the rate-sheet news isn't always bad news.