NOW: The tape finally had a catalyst and couldn't make it pay. With both sides set to sign the Iran peace memo, bonds rallied sharply overnight and the 10-year yield dropped roughly 6 bps toward its best levels in a month. Through the US session, gradual selling clawed most of it back — desks called it more a bond market problem than an Iran war problem. The 30-year ends near 6.59%, off about 2 bps on the day but still up roughly 13 bps over the past week and 16 over the past month. The honest read: rates have stabilized in the mid-6.5s, drifting modestly higher over 30 days, not falling. The rally that didn't stick is the signal — bonds wanted to go but won't commit ahead of the Fed.
NEXT: Wednesday's FOMC is the whole week. It's Kevin Warsh's first meeting as chair, and with fed funds already at 3.62% a hold is the broad expectation — so the move comes from the statement language, the updated dot plot, and the new chair's first press conference, not the rate decision itself. The calendar around it is thin. What would actually move pricing is any shift in the balance-sheet message or a dot plot that repaints the back half of the year; absent that, expect the range to hold.
RANGE: At 6.59% the 30-year sits in the upper half of its 90-day band (6.22–6.70), about 11 bps off the high and a hair above the 90-day average of 6.50%. Against the last 30 days it's right at the month's average of 6.58% — squarely mid-range, neither cheap nor stretched. There's no fresh-low refi window opening here; the math today is the same math as last week, which is the point worth being honest about with borrowers chasing a dip.
DO: With no rate edge to play, today's lever is the calendar, not the number. The focus segment is in-flight purchase contracts closing inside the next two weeks — those borrowers carry real two-sided risk through Wednesday's meeting. Secondary play: eligible FHA and VA buyers, where the 6.13%/6.15% government rates run roughly 45 bps under conventional and carry a payment story worth leading with. Do this today: pull your lock-desk pipeline and lock every contract closing within two weeks before the FOMC — when the timing is yours and the risk is two-sided, you lock.