Bankrate's daily 30Y jumped 13 bps to 6.49% today — a fresh 90-day high, breaking the 6.47% ceiling that had held for nine sessions. The bigger move was on the spread products: FHA jumped 18 bps to 6.17%, VA jumped 18 bps to 6.19%, 5/1 ARM jumped 20 bps to 6.49%. Jumbo moved less (+4 bps to 6.69%) and 15Y barely budged (+4 bps to 5.82%) — gov-loan investors are the ones who repriced overnight. The 10Y closed at 4.47%, MND flagging it as the highest yield in a year. The catalyst chain: post-CPI selloff (now in its second week) + Trump/Xi summit producing zero war-de-escalation news + forced position-unwinding from market participants who had positioned long bonds expecting good news. Today's gov-loan move is the overnight kind that surprises borrowers who got verbal quotes earlier in the week — and surprises them in the wrong direction.
The calendar is quiet until next week's housing starts (Tuesday) and existing sales (Wednesday). With the 10Y at a 1-year high, what would now drive a rally is a clear catalyst — soft housing data, a geopolitical resolution headline, or a dovish Fed speaker — and none of those are scheduled. Watch the 10Y at 4.50% as the next psychological level; a break above and the 30Y heads toward 6.55–6.60%. The path of least resistance is sideways-to-higher into next week's data unless an off-calendar catalyst lands. Don't bet on a quick retracement; the regime change earlier this week is sticky.
6.49% is a new 90-day high — first break of the 6.47 shelf since it formed two weeks ago (full 90-day range 5.98–6.49, avg 6.35). We're 9 bps above the 30-day average of 6.40 and 14 bps above the 90-day average. For the first time this month there's no near-term technical reason to expect a quick mean-reversion. For the 2023-vintage 7%+ refi cohort, the math is now slightly less favorable but still strong — about $200/mo back on a $400K loan at 7.25% → 6.49% (vs roughly $210 yesterday). UWM's Refi '86 incentive (86 bps through June 30) matters more, not less, since it's now the only piece of the rate equation moving in the borrower's favor.
Two segments to work today, and yes — today, not Monday. First: active purchase pipeline with verbal or written quotes from Tuesday through Thursday this week — call EVERY ONE of them today. The 18-bp move on FHA/VA and 13-bp move on conventional is enough to surprise borrowers, and the proactive Saturday call is dramatically better than the reactive Monday morning "rates jumped" call after they discover it themselves on Zillow or Redfin. Second: locked files closing in the next 14 days — verify the lock is intact and float the relock conversation if the file is within a float-down eligibility window. Do this today: pull every active file with a rate sheet date from May 11–15 and call the borrower today, even on a Saturday. The 13-bp daily jump combined with the 18-bp gov-loan spike is the kind of move worth disrupting a weekend for. Most LOs won't make these calls until Monday; the one who calls today owns the trust differential for the rest of the file.