The post-peace-deal rally extended into its third session and broke two psychological levels along the way. The 15-year crossed under 6% (Bankrate at 5.95%, down 6 basis points from yesterday's 6.01% and the first sub-6 print in the 90-day window). The 5/1 ARM eased 15 basis points on the MND matched-label (7/6 SOFR ARM) to 6.12%, putting it below the FHA 30-year at 6.17% for the first time this cycle — a small but real curve inversion at the front end. The conventional 30-year added 3 basis points of ease to 6.59%, total 11 basis points off the Tuesday 6.70% peak. The driver remains the same: bonds keep rallying as the US-Iran peace agreement firms up from rumor to formalization (Treasury today announced an Iran-maritime sanctions action that bond markets read as a deal-formalization step), and the bond-to-mortgage spread continues compressing toward its norm. The 10-year closed Tuesday at 4.50% — a fresh 6 basis-point easing from Friday's 4.56% level.
Two catalysts this week, today and tomorrow. The BEA's Q1 GDP third estimate landed at 8:30 AM ET; consensus is for a modest upward revision to about 2.4% from the second estimate's 2.3%. The market reaction is historically muted for revisions to revisions — the surprise risk is low. Tomorrow's core PCE is the real test: month-over-month consensus is 0.2%, year-over-year 2.7% headline. A 0.1% M/M print extends today's rally; a 0.3% reverses it. PCE is the first hard inflation print of the Warsh-era Fed with deliberately-trimmed forward guidance, so its market impact this cycle runs higher than its historical baseline. The Iran story continues to operate beneath this — any further formalization step extends the rally floor; any renegotiation headline takes it out.
Here is a different read than the daily / 90-day-band lens this week's pulses have used: the 4-week trend on the 30-year. Four weeks ago (4/30) Bankrate quoted 6.36%. Three weeks ago, 6.46%. Two weeks ago, 6.47%. One week ago, 6.65%. Today, 6.59%. Net 4-week move: +23 basis points, despite this week's 11-basis-point recovery. The week-over-week pattern shows what last week's MBA print confirmed — the recent direction has been UP, not down, with this week's rally being a partial correction of a multi-week climb rather than a sustained reversal. For a borrower frame, today's 6.59% is meaningfully below this week's peak but still about 23 basis points above a month ago. The "should I act?" calculus depends on which window the borrower anchors on; the recovery framing works on a 1-week window but reverses on a 4-week. Worth knowing which window each client is using.
The borrower to focus on today is anyone with a pre-rally quote AND anyone in the 15-year-curious cohort. Today's 30-year is roughly $35 a month lower on a $400K loan vs Tuesday's quote; the 15-year is 10 basis points lower than yesterday and crossed a psychological floor that borrowers anchor on (the "5-handle" framing). Lock posture: with PCE tomorrow, the conservative play for week-of-close deals is to lock today's improvement rather than chase Friday; deals closing 6/4 or later have a reason to wait for Friday's print. Do this today: pull every borrower in the 15-year-curious bucket (currently in a 30-year quote, has the cash flow to absorb $800 more/mo on a $400K loan) and send the side-by-side at today's 5.95% number — the under-6 framing is the message worth landing today before tomorrow's PCE shifts the math either direction.