NOW: CPI printed hot this morning and resolved the pre-print setup the Monday and Tuesday briefs flagged — to the upside. Headline inflation rose 0.5% on the month and 4.2% year over year, the firmest annual reading since April 2023, driven almost entirely by energy: the energy index was up 3.9% and accounted for over 60% of the monthly gain, with gasoline up 7% on the month as the Iran conflict keeps oil supply disrupted. The 10-year pushed toward 4.54% and the 30-year fixed climbed back to 6.55%, up about 13 bps on the week. The float side lost the bet. But the sell-off was measured, not a rout, because core held: +0.2% on the month, +2.9% annually. The desk separated the energy spike — exogenous, geopolitical — from the Fed-relevant core, and core is still trending the right way.
NEXT: With CPI behind us, the week's marquee catalyst is spent. What's left is PPI tomorrow — watch whether wholesale inflation confirms or undercuts the energy story — plus the steady drip of Iran and oil headlines, where every escalation pushes energy and yields up and any de-escalation does the reverse. Fed speakers fill the rest of the calendar ahead of the pre-FOMC quiet period. With fed funds at 3.62% and the market having largely priced in a possible hike, the rate path from here is more an oil-and-core story than a single-data-surprise story. Thin otherwise.
RANGE: At 6.55%, the 30-year sits just above its 90-day average of ~6.47% and right on its 30-day average of ~6.54%. The 90-day band runs 6.11% to 6.70%; the early-June low near 6.33% is now in the rearview. We're in the upper-middle of the range — not at the 6.70% highs, but the cheap end is gone for now. For the borrower who saw a low-6.30s quote last week and sat on it, today's number is roughly 20 bps worse — about $50/mo on a $400K loan. The window didn't slam shut; it narrowed.
DO: Today's focus is the float-this-week cohort and the fence-sitters quoted near the June lows. For in-flight deals closing inside two weeks, the CPI print tilts the decision toward locking now — the near-term path of least resistance is sideways-to-up while oil stays elevated. For the fence-sitters, this is the call-back moment: their number moved, and a specific dollar figure beats a generic "rates went up." Do this today: run the lock-vs-float dollar delta for every file closing inside 14 days and send it to the borrower — locking today versus floating into more oil-driven volatility, framed in dollars per month.