The 30-year finally moved. Bankrate's 30-year fixed reads 7.37% this morning, holding the 10 bps drop it took on Tuesday from Monday's 7.47%, and every sibling Bankrate series moved with it: the 15-year fell to 6.75% from 6.84%, jumbo to 7.45% from 7.56%, and FHA to 7.21% from 7.24%, with VA unchanged at 7.17%. The 10-year Treasury closed Tuesday at 5.12%, down from Monday's 5.15%, and is trading near 5.09% this morning. Mortgage News Daily tied the support in bonds to concerns about tech stocks, and HousingWire pointed to the same AI-related stock selloff. Freddie Mac's PMMS still stands at 7.40% for the week of October 15, 0.45 points higher than a month earlier, so this is a pullback inside a higher monthly trend.
Next up: jobless claims and the new PMMS land October 22, new home sales fall in the October 23–26 window, and core PCE in the October 23–30 window, which overlaps the October 27–28 FOMC meeting (no dot plot at this one). Thursday's PMMS is the first weekly read that can reflect this week's drop. Short of a surprise in claims, core PCE and the Fed decision are the two scheduled events that can move this range.
On range: 7.37% sits a few bps under the 30-day average of 7.40% inside a 7.11% to 7.57% band, and in the upper part of the 90-day range of 6.67% to 7.57% (average 7.01%). It is 20 bps off the 7.57% high, which on a $400K loan is about $55 a month in principal and interest, $2,761 today against $2,816 at the peak. It is still 26 bps above the 30-day low of 7.11%, so this is not yet a refi trigger for a borrower already in the low 7s.
The segment today is buyers who were quoted last week and are still floating. Their payment on $400K is about $28 a month lower than it was on Monday at 7.47%. With core PCE and the Fed both inside the next ten days, a borrower who closes inside that window is taking event risk by floating. Do this today: call every floating borrower with a closing date before the end of October, give them today's payment against Monday's, and ask whether they want to lock now or ride through the Fed.