Bond market choppy but rates steady. Bankrate's 30-year fixed reads 7.47% this morning, the same as Monday and a hair above the 7.46% it held October 15–18. The 10-year Treasury closed Monday at 5.15%, up 6 bps from Friday's 5.09%, in a session Mortgage News Daily described as weaker without one obvious cause; it is trading near 5.08% this morning, giving most of that back. This morning's housing starts came in soft: Census reports September starts fell 5.2% to a 1,221,000 annual rate, a change it notes is within the margin of error, and permits were near flat at 1,400,000. Freddie Mac's PMMS stands at 7.40% for the week of October 15, 0.45 points above a month earlier, so the monthly trend is still higher.
Next up: jobless claims and the next PMMS land October 22, new home sales fall in the October 23–26 window, and core PCE in the October 23–30 window, which overlaps the October 27–28 FOMC meeting (no dot plot at this one). Fed Chair Kevin Warsh declined to signal the next move in a Friday speech, according to The MortgagePoint, so core PCE and the Fed decision remain the two scheduled items that could move pricing. Case-Shiller lands October 27.
On range: 7.47% sits above the 30-day average of 7.39% inside a 7.11% to 7.57% band, and near the top of the 90-day range of 6.61% to 7.57% (average 7.00%). Today's lens is government lending. Bankrate's FHA 30-year reads 7.24% and its VA 30-year 7.17%, 23 and 30 bps under the conventional 30-year. FHA is at the top of its range since that series resumed in mid-August (6.32% to 7.24%); VA is just under its 7.28% high from that same stretch. On a $400K loan, principal and interest runs about $2,789 a month at 7.47%, $2,726 at 7.24% and $2,707 at 7.17%. FHA adds mortgage insurance premiums and VA carries a funding fee unless the borrower is exempt, so the rate gap is not the whole cost comparison.
Focus today: buyers in your pipeline who default to conventional but could qualify for FHA or VA. With conventional pricing near its 90-day high, a full side-by-side that includes MIP, the VA funding fee and cash to close is a concrete way to show a payment alternative. Do this today: pull every active pre-approval with a veteran or a sub-20% down payment and run a conventional vs. FHA or VA comparison at today's rates, all-in, so each buyer sees which loan gives them the lower monthly cost.