Bond market quiet to start the week, with no new catalyst yet. Bankrate's 30-year reads 7.46% this morning for a fifth straight reading, 11 bps under the 7.57% October 12 high, and the 10-year Treasury opened Monday at 5.10%, 1 bp above Friday's 5.09% close. The VIX eased to 18.6 from 19.99. Freddie Mac's PMMS stands at 7.40% for the week of October 15, 0.45 points above its level a month earlier, so the monthly trend is still higher even with last week's rally holding.
Next up: September housing starts and permits are due by October 20, jobless claims and the next PMMS land October 22, new home sales fall in the October 23–26 window, and core PCE in the October 23–30 window. The October 27–28 FOMC meeting, which does not carry a dot plot, falls inside that PCE window, so the inflation read may land before or after the Fed. Nothing else is scheduled before starts.
On range: today's 7.46% sits above the 30-day average of 7.38% inside a 7.11% to 7.57% band, and near the top of the 90-day range of 6.61% to 7.57% (average 6.99%). Bankrate's 30-year was 7.12% on September 19, so a buyer quoted then is looking at roughly $92 more a month in principal and interest on a $400K loan today ($2,786 against $2,694). Jumbo is the lens worth checking this week: Bankrate's 30-year jumbo reads 7.54%, 8 bps over the conforming 30-year, inside a 6.74% to 7.66% range since the series resumed in mid-August. A gap that narrow means a buyer just over the conforming line is paying little extra in rate for crossing it.
For in-flight deals closing before the October 27–28 meeting, the Fed and core PCE are the two scheduled risks still ahead, and the 30-year is 11 bps under its October 12 high today. Do this today: pull every jumbo-sized file in your pipeline and quote it at today's 7.54% against a conforming loan with a larger down payment, so the borrower sees the real cost of each structure in monthly dollars.