Bond market quiet over the weekend, with nothing new to add to the week's story. Bankrate's 30-year reads 7.46% for a fourth straight session, 11 bps under the 7.57% October 12 high. Freddie Mac's PMMS sits at 7.40% for the week of October 15, flat from the prior week, and the 10-year Treasury's last close was 5.09% on Friday. The one fresh number this weekend is the spread: HousingWire's Logan Mohtashami puts the mortgage-to-10-year spread at 2.21% last week, up from 2.12% the week before, against a historical range of 1.60% to 1.80%. A wider spread is the mechanism by which a bond rally reaches the rate sheet only partly.
Next up: September housing starts and permits are due by October 20, Freddie Mac's PMMS and weekly jobless claims land on October 22, new home sales fall in the October 23 to 26 window, core PCE in the October 23 to 30 window, and Case-Shiller on October 27, the first day of the October 27 to 28 FOMC meeting, which has no dot plot. With the spread at 2.21%, the 10-year has to travel further than it would at a normal spread to move the 30-year by the same amount, so a modest bond move this week may barely show up in survey levels.
On range, Bankrate's 30-year at 7.46% sits at the rich end: its 30-day window runs 7.09% to 7.57% with a 7.37% average, and its 90-day window runs 6.61% to 7.57% with a 6.98% average. The last two pulses used the conventional level and then government loans, so today's lens is the 15-year. Bankrate's 15-year reads 6.82%, 64 bps under the 30-year and 2 bps under its own 90-day high of 6.84%, against a 90-day low of 5.98%. On a $300K loan, the 15-year runs about $2,666 a month in principal and interest against about $2,089 on the 30-year, $577 more each month, for about $180K in total interest over its term against about $452K for a 30-year held to maturity.
The segment is borrowers with payment room: buyers whose approval leaves headroom under their debt-to-income limit, and refinance-curious owners who care more about a payoff date than a payment. A 15-year fits only where the higher payment clears the borrower's budget and DTI, so it is a conversation for files with room, not a pitch for every buyer. Do this today: Pick three active files with debt-to-income headroom and send each borrower a side-by-side of the 15-year and 30-year payment and total interest on their own loan amount.