Buyers backed off in September. NAR's Pending Home Sales Index fell 7.3% from August and 11.3% from a year earlier, with every region down on both counts and the West worst at 9.2% for the month and 15.0% for the year. NAR's Lawrence Yun put it plainly: "Market conditions weakened in September due to fast-rising mortgage rates." A pending sale is a signed contract that has not closed yet, so this is the pipeline that funds in the weeks ahead, and it is thinner than last year's.
Yesterday's brief covered the builder side of the same squeeze: Census said September starts fell 5.2% and NAHB reported 43% of builders cutting prices. Today's contract number shows the demand side catching up with what builders were already pricing in.
The other story an LO needs on their radar is still a draft. Scotsman Guide reports it reviewed an unsigned executive order aimed at mortgage costs that would direct reducing or eliminating loan-level price adjustments on eligible refinances, waive appraisals and income re-verification on limited cash-out refis that lower the payment, let FHFA consider widening the title-waiver pilot, have Fannie and Freddie look for borrowers eligible for proactive mortgage insurance cancellation, and direct USDA and VA to lower rates using their own authorities. Scotsman Guide notes it may change or never be issued, and the White House and FHFA did not comment. Nothing about it is actionable until it is signed and the agencies publish guidance, but it is worth knowing the details before a client asks.
On rates, Bankrate's 30-year fixed sits at 7.37% this morning, down from 7.47% on Monday, and the 10-year Treasury is trading near 5.09% against Tuesday's 5.12% close. Freddie Mac's weekly PMMS held at 7.40%, and it is 0.45 points higher than a month ago, so two calmer days are a breather, not a reversal. The next catalysts come from the calendar: jobless claims and the new PMMS on October 22, core PCE due in the October 23–30 window, and the October 27–28 FOMC meeting, which carries no dot plot.
On the compliance side, the Justice Department announced on October 19 that VA loan servicer Village Capital will pay more than $500,000, including at least $425,000 to servicemembers and a $79,380 civil penalty, to resolve allegations that it did not apply the Servicemembers Civil Relief Act's 6% interest cap correctly on at least 41 mortgages and retaliated against borrowers who asked for it. It is a settlement of allegations, not a finding, but it is a clean reminder that an active-duty borrower with pre-service debt has rate rights worth confirming at application. National Mortgage News reports new indictments in a Houston-area FHA fraud case built on falsified pay stubs, and that California servicers face a new insurance-disbursement reporting requirement with first reports due October 29. HousingWire reports Zillow has asked the court to reconsider its ruling that kept the mortgage tying suit alive.
pull every buyer in your pipeline who went under contract in September and confirm their lock expiration against the closing date, so no file slips past its lock unnoticed.