New construction is today's story, and two releases point the same way. Census and HUD reported this morning that September housing starts ran at a 1,221,000 annual rate, 5.2% below August's revised 1,288,000 and 7.4% below a year ago; single-family starts slipped 4.6% to 859,000. Census notes the monthly change sits inside its margin of error, so read it as a soft month rather than a break. Permits were close to flat at 1,400,000, though single-family permits fell 4.0% to 845,000. Monday's NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index fell three points to 29, and NAHB says 43% of builders cut prices in October, the highest share in its 2020–2026 series, with 65% using sales incentives.
Yesterday's edition leaned on Realtor.com's Market Clock showing buyer leverage across most large metros. Today's data adds the builder half of that picture: builders are starting fewer homes and discounting the ones they have. Redfin's home price index rose 0.25% in September, with prices up in 34 of the 50 most populous metros and down in 16, led by Fort Worth. Prices are still edging up nationally while new-home sellers are the ones conceding.
The connection to rates is direct. Bankrate's 30-year fixed reads 7.47% this morning, up from the 7.46% it held October 15–18. Freddie Mac's weekly PMMS was 7.40% on October 15, 0.45 points above a month earlier. The 10-year Treasury closed Monday at 5.15%, up from 5.09% Friday, in what Mortgage News Daily described as a weaker bond session without an obvious single cause; it is trading near 5.08% this morning. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh declined to signal the next move in a Friday speech, according to The MortgagePoint, which leaves the October 27–28 FOMC meeting (no dot plot) as an open question. Jobless claims and the next PMMS land October 22, new home sales fall in the October 23–26 window, and core PCE in the October 23–30 window. On the volume outlook, HousingWire reports Bank of America analysts project $1.72 trillion in 2027 originations and see the lock-in effect persisting.
Industry and regulatory notes: National Mortgage News reports a group of Senate Democrats asked the administration to investigate real estate platforms that steer consumers to affiliated lenders. If you run co-marketing with an agent or a portal, now is a good time to have compliance confirm each arrangement is RESPA Section 8 clean. HousingWire reports FHFA Director Bill Pulte signaled a review of loan-level price adjustments and credit report costs; nothing has been issued yet, so treat it as a watch item, not a pricing change. NMN, citing FHFA, reports a short-term rise in GSE modifications and other workouts brought delinquencies down, and HousingWire reports servicers are offering more pre-foreclosure short sale options to underwater borrowers who are behind on payments. J.D. Power's digital servicing study ranked Chase and Rocket at the top, per Scotsman Guide. Ahead on the calendar: NMLS renewal opens November 1 and the UAD 3.6 / new URAR mandate arrives November 2.
call the sales office at two builders you work with and ask what incentives they are offering on finished spec homes this month, then price each one as a rate buydown at 7.47% so your buyers see the payment, not just the discount.